Jonny K. Says: Crank up the Worry Meter for HMS

It’s no secret that Hendrick Motorsports doesn’t have the speed they once had, and are rarely keeping up with the competition on the track each week. There will be some who say, “Don’t worry about them,” or “it’s only been three races.” Yes, it has only been three races, but that small sample size is a microcosm of what’s happening at HMS.

Let’s start with a disclaimer. Teams in the Chevrolet camp had only five months to prepare their brand new Camaro ZL1 body style that it debuted at Daytona. Just about every team, save for Kyle Larson, is struggling with the change ( of course Austin Dillon won the Daytona 500, but that’s not a good measuring stick of overall speed and performance).

Chase Elliott has been running up front, in all three races, notching a top-10 finish at Atlanta, but crashing out at Daytona and Las Vegas. Elliott may be the only bright spot for HMS this year, as he will likely make the playoffs.

Ol’ 7-time, Jimmie Johnson will likely make the playoffs too, given NASCAR’s win-and-you’re-in format, but his performances as of late, might give fans some concern. Johnson’s problems are not limited to 2018, where he has only one top 12 finish with two sub-25th place finishes. Dating back to last season, Johnson hasn’t won in 26 races (a career high). In his last 10 races, 2017-2018 combined, Johnson has a single top-ten finish, and six finishes outside the top 20, including a 38th and a 39th. Couple these performance issues with trying to figure out the new body style, and the JJ/Knaus team may be in a bit of trouble.

That leaves the tandem of young Alex Bowman and rookie William Byron. Yes, Bowman won the pole at Daytona (again that means very little). Yes, Bowman has had success at ISM Raceway (formerly Phoenix). In all likelihood the Fords will dominate again this weekend, and could power Kevin Harvick to a third-straight victory. Bowman will run in the top 10, but his performance at Phoenix, won’t translate to more speed at the mile-and-a-halves where NASCAR spends most of its season. Elliott will likely be a contender, but he is the exception (see the above paragraph).

Byron is young. Not only is he dealing with the pressure of high expectations coming off an Xfinity Series title, but he is only racing in his fourth race in a Cup car; a Chevrolet that even the most experienced drivers have yet to completely figure out (see Johnson, Jimmie). Byron will be good in time, but don’t expect him to figure it out at the snap of his fingers. Johnson is a good mentor, but he will be too busy dealing with his own issues to be a great help to his young teammates (not that he wouldn’t if he could).

Hendrick Motorsports has to get something figured out before it gets too late. Maybe they should try to steal some notes from the 42 team? Maybe Rick can talk to young Elliott and encourage him to be a little less aggressive, and just wait out his car, and close for a victory. A trip to victory lane for Elliott could ignite just the spark of confidence that HMS needs.

If Elliott doesn’t get it done, there’s no guarantee that any of the other members of the stable will. Hendrick fans should have at least a little bit of concern in the pit of their stomachs.