2019 Predictions Recap: Double A Takes the Crown

Our writers made many predictions before and throughout the 2019 NASCAR season. Let's take a look at those prediction and how many each "expert" got correct.

Right on the Money

Double A

Kyle Busch the champ. The Candyman was my preseason favorite to win it all, and he didn’t disappoint. Even after going 21 races between wins and coasting on stage points to get him into the championship 4, Busch captured his second Cup Series championship. The man is only 34-years-old and passed Rusty Wallace in Cup Series wins with his Homestead-Miami Speedway win. Busch should be considered a favorite as long as he pilots the No. 18 Toyota for Joe Gibbs Racing.

Chevy Finding Speed. In May, after Chevrolet drivers found themselves in the top 10 more than the season’s beginning, I proposed the thought that Chevy teams were getting better. While the manufacturer fell short of challenging for the championship, its drivers did find more success as the season progressed. Chase Elliott proved 2018 was not a fluke with three more wins, Kurt Busch continued his winning streak with Chip Ganassi at Kentucky, Alex Bowman notched his first career victory at Chicagoland, Justin Haley got the surprise win of the season at Daytona and Kyle Larson returned to victory lane at Dover in the fall. Big overall improvement from last year.

Truex Busch’s Biggest Challenger. Martin Truex Jr. had his best season since his 2017 championship triumph with seven wins, 15 top-5 finishes and 24 top-10s. Had his pit crew not messed up his tire rotation at Homestead, perhaps his championship race with Busch would have been much closer. Truex looks to be in line to knock off Brad Keselowski as Busch’s top rival, though this one will surely be friendlier…right? Either way, Truex is here to stay as a contender wherever he races.

The Johnson era is over. In my preseason predictions, I had Jimmie Johnson making his 16th consecutive postseason with a new crew chief in Kevin Meendering and a new sponsor in Ally. However, I later proclaimed that Johnson’s time on top was over, and the most recently inducted member of the seven-time champions club missed his first Chase playoffs since the Chase’s first incarnation in 2004. Johnson struggled in 2019 with just three top-5 finishes and 12 top-10’s. Even at favorite tracks like Dover and Texas, Johnson took another step back as his career seems to be winding down. Even a mid-season crew chief change to Cliff Daniels didn’t make matters better. The 44-year-old said he will be back in the No. 48 ride next season and Ally is back on as a sponsor, so we’ll see if he goes out in glory like Jeff Gordon or in a wreck-filled mess like Richard Petty. However, the last couple of seasons don’t bode well.

Ryan Newman Heating Up. After finishing in the top 10 three consecutive times in the spring at Bristol, Richmond and Talladega, I posited the idea that Newman could be finding his groove with new team, Roush Fenway Racing. While the “heating up” part only amount to a simmer, Newman was good enough to reach the playoffs and finished with three top-five finishes, 14 top 10’s and a 15th-place points finish. Not terrible, but much left to be desired. While history says not to get excited about Newman’s chances next year, it could be refreshing to see a new face in the Roush Fenway with Chris Buescher as his new teammate.

Jonny K

Kyle Busch wins his 2nd title. In the pre-season, I picked Kyle Busch to win the 2019 championship based on his 2018 season. I picked him again before the playoffs started, mostly because he was “due,” though his winless streak was only at 12 at the time (it would obviously stretch to 21). Busch did not win again in the playoffs, but did enough to advance him to Homestead, where thanks to a couple of mistakes by his Championship 4 competitors and a flawless race for the 18 team, he was able to claim his second Cup Series championship.

JGR places all four in playoffs. For my stone-cold lock in 2019, I predicted that Joe Gibbs Racing would field four cars in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. I even said they would do so with wins by all four drivers, which they did. Little did I know, they would put three cars in the Championship 4. I was a little off on the win totals as I predicted Busch to have seven, Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin to each have three, and Erik Jones to have one (the only one I got right!). JGR dominated the season with 19 of 36 wins, and a championship to top it off.

Daniel Hemric will be relegated to the Xfinity Series. Ok, so I got this one right, just not with the right team. I’m still taking credit for it. When it was announced that eventual Xfinity Series champion Tyler Reddick would be promoted to the #8 Richard Childress Racing cup team, Daniel Hemric was left searching for a ride for 2020. Due to the lack of competitive, full-time rides remaining in the Cup Series, I predicted that Hemric would join an Xfinity Series team. Though I thought he would be driving the 20 car (Harrison Burton will do that), Hemric signed on to drive the 8 car for JR Motorsports for 21 races, sharing the ride with Harrison’s cousin Jeb and the bossman, himself. I was in the “Daniel Hemric was promoted too early” camp. Coming into 2019 his Xfinity and Truck Series resume included 116 starts with zero wins, 38 top 5s and 69 top 10s. Those aren’t terrible stats, but they are not good enough, in my opinion, to earn a ride in the Monster Energy Cup Series.

Up in Smoke

Double A

William Byron reaching victory lane. William Byron’s sophomore season was filled with much more highs than his rookie season. With five top-5 finishes, 13 top-10s and four poles, Byron found himself at the front more often. In fact, he would’ve had a top 10 points finish had he not finished second-to-last at Homestead. Unfortunately, that success didn’t translate to getting his first win, which remains at large. The good news though? He’s only 21-years-old.

Kyle Larson’s bounce-back year. Kyle Larson won a race! Just one, at Dover, but it propelled him into the Round of 8. It was refreshing seeing Larson win, but this season had more missed opportunities than success. Sure, the controversy at Texas involving a suspicious Bubba Wallace spin to bring the caution out may have prevented Larson from reaching Homestead, but missed opportunities include the following, among others: The February Atlanta race where he led the most laps, but finished 12th; a stretch of six races early in the season where he finished outside the top 10; and getting passed by Alex Bowman with six laps to go at Chicagoland for the lead.

The Year of Ford. When Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano won three of the first six races of the year, I thought Team Penske would carry this success into the playoffs. That…wasn’t the case. All three of Keselowski’s wins came in the first 11 races of the season, none after that, and he didn’t even make the Round of 8. Logano meanwhile got his second of two wins at the first Michigan race in June and wouldn’t even get the chance to defend his championship. Ryan Blaney’s fall Talladega win carried a glimmer of hope with it, but Blaney’s run would also fall short. Kevin Harvick proved to be Ford’s best chance (again) at a championship, but finished fourth at Homestead, third in the championship standings. Ford: “We can start business, but can’t close deals.”

Jonny K

Matt DiBenedetto will win a race. My shot-in-the-dark bold prediction was that Matt DiBenedetto would win a race for Leavine Family Racing in 2019. I thought Matty D would win at one of the superspeedways, where mid-pack teams seem to thrive. It turns out the Bristol Night Race would be his best chance to win. DiBenedetto lead a race-high 93 laps before having his heartbroken as Denny Hamlin passed him for the lead with 12 laps to go. He finished the year with three top 5s, seven top 10s, and an average finish of 18.3, which garnered enough attention to land him a ride in the iconic #21 Wood Brothers Ford for 2020.

Jimmie Johnson will make the Round of 8. Ouch. This one was waaaaaayyyy off. For the first time in his career, and the 16 year history of the playoff format, Johnson failed to secure a berth in NASCAR’s postseason. Johnson was hardly ever considered a threat to win and notched just three top 5s and 12 top 10s. His average finish of 17.4 was the worst of his full-time career. Yikes. Even a mid-season crew chief change from Kevin Meendering to Cliff Daniels couldn’t help salvage the 48’s season.

JGR-LFR will shake up their lineups. On June 17, I predicted that Joe Gibbs Racing would give Denny Hamlin (and FedEx) the boot and move them to satellite team, Leavine Family Racing. This would leave open a spot for Christopher Bell to join the Cup Series roster. At the time, Hamlin had two of his eventual six wins. I thought that was all he would get, and it wouldn’t be enough to save him. I also thought LFR would keep DiBenedetto and add a second car. It turns out LFR would release Matty D, and add Bell to their team, with Hamlin staying put at JGR. I did believe that JGR would increase their relationship and funding of LFR for Hamlin, which they will ultimately do for Bell.

Cole Custer will replace Clint Bowyer. Ok, so I got part of this one right, but only the obvious part. Everyone knew once the Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick to Cup news was announced that Custer was soon to follow. I believed that it would be Bowyer who was unseated at Stewart-Haas Racing in favor of the young General. I said he would make his way to the 37 car to help JTG Daugherty Racing groom Ryan Preece (a role instead they pegged Ricky Stenhouse Jr. for) It turns out, Bowyer re-upped for one year and in an 11th hour decision, Daniel Suarez was ousted from the 41 car. Was it the right decision? I’m not sure. But I do know this. Custer is talented, and is probably a better overall driver than Suarez, despite his lack of Xfinity Series championship hardware.

If you are keeping track at home, Double A got five predictions right, Jonny K had three.

We will drop the checkers on the 2019 season, and get primed for 2020. Catch us all off-season as we opine on multiple topics, including the BREAKING NEWS: Jimmie Johnson announces his retirement after the 2020 season!