Jonny K. Says: No California Dreamin' for Harvick

Kevin Harvick’s winning streak will not reach his car number.

This week, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to Fontana, California, the home of Auto Club Speedway. Harvick is coming off a vengeful victory at ISM Raceway in Phoenix, and looking to extend his current run to four consecutive victories. Unfortunately for him, there are a couple of guys named Kyle that are going to stand in his way.

Kyle Larson has been the “hot hand” lately when it comes to securing victories at two-mile tracks. He swept Michigan last season and, of course, is the defending champion at Auto Club.

Not only did Larson win the Cup race last season, he also parked it in Victory Lane in the Xfinity Series the day before. In both series combined, Larson has three wins, four top-five, and seven top-ten finishes in Fontana. Given his success at Auto Club and its sister track Michigan; look for Larson to be a factor when the checkered flag flies.

The other guy named Kyle is the one that Harvick should most be concerned about. Kyle Busch has been nipping at Harvick’s heels in the past two races, while not being able to find quite enough speed to beat the Stewart-Haas Racing veteran. Busch’s record at Auto Club is a bit more impressive than Larson’s.

In all three series combined at Auto Club (the Trucks haven’t raced there since 2009), Busch has made 11 trips to victory lane, including three in NASCAR’s top series. He won back-to-back races in ’13 and ’14 in the Cup series, and went on an impressive streak in the Xfinity Series winning five of his six tries in Fontana from August of 2008 to March of 2011. He also won the last two truck races contested at Auto Club in 2008 and 2009 respectively.

Busch’s speed in the last three races, coupled with the frustration from a pair of heartbreaking second place finishes, will land him in Victory Lane come Sunday evening in Southern California.

Despite these facts, Harvick has as good a chance as any to win. In NASCAR’s top three series at Fontana, Harvick has two wins, 18 top fives, and 29 top tens. Those aren’t bad numbers at all, and he is on a three-race hot streak.

But the competition is catching him.

All four Joe Gibbs Racing cars, plus quasi teammate Martin Truex Jr., were in the top 10 behind Harvick at Phoenix.

They are coming.

So are the rest of his SHR teammates, who were also all in the top 10 (Kurt Busch also fairs well at Fontana).

Given these factors, fans tuning in to the Auto Club 400 this Sunday can expect to see a different face in Victory Lane.