Double A Says: Happy in Homestead: Harvick Will Capture Second Championship

And so, it comes down to this: The Big 3 (Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr.), plus Joey Logano.

Each of the Big 3 has won a championship in this playoffs-based Chase system, and it’s a fairly safe bet one of them will come out a two-time champion once the checkered flag waves at Homestead this Sunday (sorry, Joey).

For me, Kevin Harvick sticks out as the favorite this weekend. True, Harvick has been on the wrong end of some controversy (two encumbered wins. Two.), but when it comes to pressure in big-time situations, there is none for Happy.

Harvick was the first champion in the playoffs era of the Chase, and he’s been in the final four a record four times since 2014. Add to that the fact that statistically, this is the best season Harvick has ever had, and you have yourself a seasoned veteran who has shed the “Where’d He Come From” nickname and has become simply known as “Dominator.”

Fun facts: Harvick has finished outside the top 10 at Homestead only twice in the 17 races he’s run there. That second one came all the way back in 2007. In the past four races, he has finished in the top 5.

Some people (like Jon) might argue Kyle Busch will come out on top because of the momentum he gained by winning at Phoenix. While I expect Busch to be near the front Sunday, only one driver has won at Phoenix and then Homestead to win the championship since 2014, and that’s Happy Harvick. When Jimmie Johnson won the championship in 2016, he finished 38th at Phoenix. The point is “momentum” doesn’t always equal success the following week.

Both Harvick and Busch are neck-and-neck on paper, with each having eight wins on the season. However, Harvick has the slight edge for overall top 5 and top 10 finishes, laps led and average driver rating for 2018. At Homestead, slight is all you need to win the championship.

At Homestead, Harvick has better history with Homestead-Miami Speedway than Busch. Just read a few paragraphs above for Happy’s stats and compare that with Busch’s. In 13 starts at Homestead, Busch has finished outside the top 10 seven times. While he has finished in the top 10 in his past three visits there, he has not led the most laps in any of those visits. In fact, he led the most laps in just one race at Homestead in 2012 and came up short there.

I expect this race to be a close one just like all playoff Chase era Homestead races, but give me Harvick to win championship No. 2.