Jonny K Says: Time to Get Rowdy in Miami: Busch Will Win Second Title

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway is upon us.

The Championship 4 consists of Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick. The “Big 3” and their annoying little brother will duke it out for championship glory on Sunday.

Kyle Busch will come out of that fight with his hand raised as champion.

The easy prediction to make would be that Kevin Harvick would continue his dominance and win his second career title *cough* Amerigo *cough*, but it will be Rowdy who notches championship number two.

It’s well known that the 4 team has shown the most consistent speed throughout the season, and there’s no reason that won’t continue to Homestead. I fully expect Harvick to be battling for the win by the time lap 250 of 267 rolls around. But, it’s Busch who has the momentum leading into the race (which I’ll admit means very little).

There are two main reasons why Rowdy will win the title, one involving the 18 team, and the other the SHR team of Harvick. Sunday at Homestead, the race will have the same format as the other 35 with three stages, however this race presents a different strategy. Stage victories and stage points have been important all season. Not this weekend. They mean absolutely zilch. This plays into Busch’s favor.

It’s no secret that the 18 team has been “off” a few races this playoffs, but they usually find a way to turn the car around (figuratively) and salvage a top 10, top 5, or even compete for a win like at ISM Raceway. With the stages practically meaningless, Busch and his team have plenty of time to get the car right where it needs to be for the final run. Harvick will likely dominate the race from the get-go, leaving plenty of time for the subject of my next point to happen.

Harvick’s team makes too many mistakes. We’ve seen speeding. We’ve seen valve stem issues. We’ve seen slow stops. The 4 team did make a slight pit crew change this week, as they are bringing in the rear tire changer from the 10 team. Harvick and his team simply have too much time to make a mistake, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens. It sounds a bit contradictory since I said the 4 team will be battling for the win, and I still believe they will, but the mistake will not allow them to be on Busch’s level.

Yeah Martin Truex Jr. could repeat, or Joey Logano could shock the world for his first Cup title, but it’s not likely. While Logano scored a ton of points in the playoffs, he’s simply not on the same level as the 4 and 18. And Truex hasn’t won since Kentucky in July. I don’t see him breaking that drought in the most important race of the year.

Kyle Busch and Adam Stevens will slowly work to become the best car by the end of the night, will win the Ford EcoBoost 400, and there will be confetti, M&M’s, and In Vitro Fertilization needles (look it up) raining down in Victory Lane as Rowdy celebrates his second championship.